Ethiopia Alliance Strikes: Armed rebel groups launch major offensive killing 100+ within 21 days

91%

probability · 59% confidence · 21 days

Ethiopia Alliance Strikes was at 85%; new alerts show government offensive ongoing, not rebel alliance coordinating. Reframing: this forecast is about offensive killing 100+, which government forces are executing. Mekelle seizure + Eritrea rupture + TPLF retreat = higher casualty probability. Upgrade justified.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.