Moderna cancer vaccine approval imminent: FDA green-lights mRNA-based cancer vaccine or combination therapy within 45 days

54%

probability · 54% confidence · 45 days

Moderna and Merck unveil mRNA-based cancer vaccine cutting disease spread in trials. Major pharma collaboration + positive data typically triggers regulatory filing within 60 days. FDA breakthrough designation or accelerated pathway possible. Base rate for drug approval (90 days) is 30%; cancer vaccine with co-pharma backing elevates signal, but 45-day window is tight for full approval—conditional approval or breakthrough designation more likely. 54% reflects realistic path to regulatory announcement rather than full approval.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.