Bird Flu Spreading Fast: H5N1 confirmed in 3+ new Australian states by August 20

79%

probability · 72% confidence · 16 days

Bird Flu Spreading Fast (H5N1 in 3+ Australian states by Aug 20). Alert confirms Australia warns H5N1 likely to spread after first mass mortality episode. Spread trajectory is underway. Base rate for outbreak spread is 15%; this forecast is more specific. Increasing from 76% to 79% to reflect confirmed mass mortality event triggering spread pattern.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.