Climate Knock-On Effect: Kenya floods trigger regional displacement above 500k by May 30

64%

probability · 58% confidence · 65 days

Climate Knock-On Effect forecast (58% → 64%): Sudan internet blackout persists + 13.3M Syrian displacement + Kenya floods signal cascading climate/displacement crises. UN warns South Sudan famine; disease alerts raised across Lima, Beijing, Khartoum. Regional displacement above 500k plausible by May 30. Probability increased 6 points.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.