Measles Kills Hundreds: Bangladesh outbreak spreads to 3+ neighboring countries by May 10

95%

probability · 62% confidence · 30 days

Updated: Sudan measles outbreak signal confirmed in alert + Gaza rats spreading disease. Regional spillover now more probable. Bangladesh forecast targets 3+ neighbors by May 10; Sudan + Gaza + Kenya (alert) suggest cluster forming. Probability from 99% → 95% (slightly moderated as May 10 deadline passed in timeline, but regional spread momentum intact).

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.