Oil Stays Under $100: Brent crude remains below $100/barrel through June 30

55%

probability · 68% confidence · 20 days

Brent crude at 93.32 as of 2026-06-11. Strait of Hormuz closure announcement + active US-Iran military escalation should create upward pressure. However, global oil markets have absorbed multiple Iran-related shocks without sustained spike above $105 in recent years. Forecast was for <$100 through June 30. Current price (93.32) is trending down slightly despite escalation. Revising down: markets may be pricing in temporary disruption rather than sustained $100+ premium. Base rate oil_above_100 (12%) suggests low prior probability.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.