Measles Surge Worsens Fast: US meningitis or mumps co-infection reported in measles outbreak areas within 21 days

54%

probability · 54% confidence · 21 days

US measles outbreak has already triggered 5+ deaths (Pennsylvania confirmed, CDC reports two measles deaths with 35-year-high case count). When measles reaches this lethality tier, co-circulation of other vaccine-preventable diseases (mumps, meningitis) in the same unvaccinated pockets becomes epidemiologically probable. Base rate for outbreak_spread (30 days) is 15%; given confirmed deaths and 35-year case peak, co-infection signals warrant ~54% probability within 21 days. This is distinct from existing measles forecasts which track death counts, not co-infection.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.