Iranian Succession Finalizes: New Supreme Leader issues binding decree on nuclear policy within 14 days

99%

probability · 78% confidence · 14 days

Iranian Succession Finalizes forecast expires July 21 at 99% (due today). New signals confirm: Iran-backed Houthis announce blockade, French diplomats subjected to intimidation in Iran, Iran escalates Gulf attacks. Supreme Leader succession driver intact; no probability adjustment needed as forecast reaches terminal expiry.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.