Sudan Massacre Fears Peak: Khartoum frontline city El-Obeid falls to RSF or suffers mass civilian casualties exceeding 500 within 14 days

91%

probability · 73% confidence · 14 days

Sudan Massacre Fears Peak: Syria displacement crisis now at 13.4 million (highest signal level recorded). Sudan war causes catastrophic demographic collapse. El-Obeid vulnerability remains acute. Probability slightly elevated due to cascading displacement signals across region and RSF advance momentum.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.