Trump Assassination Threat Lingers: Additional credible plots or attack attempts surface by May 20

64%

probability · 64% confidence · 22 days

White House press gala shooting suspect charged with attempted assassination of Trump. Conspiracy theories already surging post-incident. Historical base rate for terrorism (30 days) is 8%, but political violence clustering suggests elevated risk window. Media amplification may inspire copycat attempts.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.