Polish Assassination Plot Unravels: Third suspect arrested or plot details revealed within 14 days

66%

probability · 66% confidence · 14 days

Warsaw has arrested two suspected assassins in an organized plot to execute a Ukrainian-American. Intelligence signals suggest network coordination with Russian backing. Base rate for terrorism or coordinated attack planning uncovering is 8% (30 days), but arrest acceleration and media activity around organized assassination networks raises probability. Third suspect or damaging revelations about network structure likely within 14 days as Polish authorities intensify investigation.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.