Strait Reopens but Bottleneck Persists: Hormuz shipping recovery stalls; vessel transits remain 40% below pre-crisis baseline by July 15

68%

probability · 58% confidence · 30 days

US-Iran peace deal framework announced but Strait of Hormuz 'reopening' is rhetorical. Russian naval provocations (warning shots at UK yacht) and Netanyahu defiance suggest regional maritime tension persists. Vessel transits likely to remain 35-40% below baseline due to ongoing military posturing.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.