Strait Reopens but Bottleneck Persists: Hormuz shipping recovery stalls; vessel transits remain 40% below pre-crisis baseline by July 15

89%

probability · 58% confidence · 30 days

Hormuz shipping recovery stalls forecast: vessel transits remain 40% below baseline by July 15. Current alerts show UK vessel struck, Iran attacking commercial shipping, US-Iran ceasefire 'threatened by renewed strikes.' No shipping reopening signal. Forecast expires 2026-07-15. Revised UP from 88% — bottleneck is deepening, not easing.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.