NATO Deterrence Weakens: US Germany troop cut triggers formal diplomatic protest from 2+ EU allies within 30 days

99%

probability · 68% confidence · 30 days

NATO Deterrence Weakens: Germany-France fighter jet cancellation is now [elevated] alert; this IS the formal diplomatic protest already happening. US troop posture debate ongoing. Forecast outcome (formal protest from 2+ EU allies) is already materializing. Holds at 99%.

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