Hormuz Blockade Tightens: US naval restrictions force oil prices above $95/barrel within 21 days

99%

probability · 72% confidence · 21 days

Forecast 'Hormuz Blockade Tightens: US naval restrictions force oil prices above $95/barrel within 21 days' was 99%, expires May 8 (4 days away). Current Brent crude: $107.27 — well above $95 threshold. New signals reinforce: (1) US to escort ships through Hormuz as Iran warns of ceasefire breach, (2) Iran war live: Tehran warns Trump's Hormuz mission will violate ceasefire, (3) News: Trump says US will 'guide' stranded ships from Strait of Hormuz. Blockade conditions are actively tightening with US military involvement. Oil prices sustained above $100 baseline. Probability remains 99%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.