Oil prices exceed $90/barrel due to Iran conflict disruptions within 30 days

72%

probability · 78% confidence · 30 days

Active US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, reports of shadow fleets crossing Strait of Hormuz, and disruption of mine-laying vessels create direct supply-chain risks. Multiple signals indicate oil market volatility with 'wildly swinging prices' already reported. Experts warn of regional food shortages tied to energy costs, suggesting sustained upward pressure on crude. [AUTO-RESOLVED] WTI Crude reached 94.65 (threshold: above 90).

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.