Oil prices exceed $90/barrel due to Iran conflict disruptions within 30 days

72%

probability · 78% confidence · 30 days

Auto-graded retroactively: WTI_CRUDE closed at 96.57 > 90 on 2026-04-10 — correct. Active US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, reports of shadow fleets crossing Strait of Hormuz, and disruption of mine-laying vessels create direct supply-chain risks. Multiple signals indicate oil market volatility with 'wildly swinging prices' already reported. Experts warn of regional food shortages tied to energy costs, suggesting sustained upward pressure on crude.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.