Hungary Election Upheaval: Viktor Orban's party loses parliamentary majority or faces coalition collapse within 10 days

31%

probability · 31% confidence · 10 days

JD Vance and Trump publicly backing Orban before Sunday (high-stakes) Hungarian parliamentary elections. Signals show Russian disinformation campaign tied to Hungary, classified breach, and EU security concerns. Election_upset base rate (30 days) is 15%; Vance's intervention may actually *stabilize* Orban's support rather than destabilize it. Short timeframe (10 days post-election) makes majority loss less likely unless early polling shifts dramatically. Probability conservative, below base rate.

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