Mali Collapses Fast: Armed groups overthrow junta government or force military retreat from capital within 21 days

68%

probability · 28% confidence · 21 days

Mali collapses fast forecast updated: Armed groups now confirmed taking Tessalit military camp; soldiers probed for involvement with rebels/jihadists. Governance stability deteriorating faster than baseline. Regional humanitarian crisis deepening (food insecurity, displacement). Elevated from 58% to 68% based on accelerating armed group military gains.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.