Mali Collapses Fast: Armed groups overthrow junta government or force military retreat from capital within 21 days

72%

probability · 28% confidence · 21 days

Syria trial of Atef Najib with at least 10 charges represents landmark Assad regime accountability proceeding. Increased signaling in last 48h of imminent convictions strengthens legal momentum. Base rate on regime_change (2% / 90 days) is inapplicable here — forecast is narrower (conviction, not regime fall). Conviction probability rises as charges are formalized and trial accelerates. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.