Ceasefire Window Closing: Israeli siege on Hebron expands to full-scale military operation within 14 days

74%

probability · 66% confidence · 14 days

Israeli forces have completed Hebron operation with confirmed displacement of thousands. Threats of 'wider offensive' and 10-day siege extension signal continued escalation. Original forecast (66%) underestimated operational momentum. Raising to 74% reflects confirmed tactical progression.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.