Federal Reserve signals pause on rate cuts at May 2026 FOMC meeting amid persistent inflation above 2.5%

76%

probability · 68% confidence · 14 days

Federal Reserve inflation concerns amplified by Iran war energy shock. Brent crude now creeping toward $100+; pass-through to CPI inflation likely. Persistent inflation above 2.5% is increasingly probable by May FOMC. Base rate for rate_cut is 8%; pause on cuts now more likely. Probability increased from 72% → 76%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.