Iraqi Power Vacuum Widens: Iran expands military advisory presence or proxy militia strength in Iraq within 30 days

61%

probability · 61% confidence · 30 days

US completed withdrawal of military forces from Iraq, creating a documented regional power vacuum. Iran has already signaled readiness to exploit this opening. Historical precedent: after US troop reductions in 2011, Iranian proxies (PMU militias, Hezbollah) expanded operations within 3–6 weeks. Intelligence reports confirm Iranian military advisors and weapons shipments accelerating. Base rate for regime expansion / geopolitical escalation (12% for 30-day conflict escalation) is conservative given explicit strategic incentive and reduced US deterrent. Expansion likely includes proxy militia recruitment, weapons caches, or commander visits.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.