Syria Exodus Accelerates: Displacement exceeds 13.8 million by May 15

95%

probability · 71% confidence · 30 days

Syria displacement now explicitly at 13.4M per alert (forecast threshold 13.8M by May 15). Near-certain to exceed within 3 days given ongoing Israeli strikes and regional destabilization. Adjusted from 93% to 95%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.