EU Welfare Crunch: Germany, France announce joint energy rationing by May 10

55%

probability · 49% confidence · 44 days

EU Welfare Crunch forecast (49% → 55%): European airlines slashing thousands of flights due to Iran war jet fuel disruption + Russia threatening oil blockade via Kazakhstan pipeline + EU mobilizing energy crisis response all confirm acute energy shortage. Germany unveils first-ever military strategy suggests systemic strain. Probability increased 6 points as energy rationing urgency is now explicit.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.