Measles Wave Keeps Climbing: US confirms 2,500+ measles cases by August 5

88%

probability · 88% confidence · 10 days

US has already recorded 2,318 measles cases (surpassing 2025 annual total per alert). An existing active forecast pegs 3,000 cases by August 15 at 96% confidence. Current trajectory suggests 2,500+ within 10 days is highly probable given acceleration trend. Outbreak spread base rate is 15%; vaccination hesitancy reported in open media elevates this significantly.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.