Humanitarian Crisis Looms: Lebanon refugee/displaced population exceeds 1.2 million by May 1

99%

probability · 55% confidence · 38 days

Existing forecast: 'Humanitarian Crisis Looms: Lebanon refugee/displaced population exceeds 1.2 million by May 1' assigned 99%. New signal: 'Lebanon displacement crisis reaches 1.2 million as Israeli strikes continue breaching ceasefire.' Threshold of 1.2M has been achieved/surpassed. With May 1 expiration imminent, this forecast is functionally confirmed. Holding at 99%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.