US Hiring Collapses Further: Nonfarm payroll growth falls below 100k in April jobs report

76%

probability · 62% confidence · 30 days

US hiring already weak; Iran war economic headwinds, fuel cost pass-through, and inventory corrections signal April payroll weakness. Lowering from 81% to 76% — new data on unemployment insurance claims and ADP employment will provide clarity, but April jobs report (released May 2) faces risk of sub-100k growth.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.