Congo Ebola Reaches Crisis Scale: WHO confirms cumulative cases exceed 3,500 by August 10

98%

probability · 92% confidence · 12 days

Congo Ebola forecast targets 3,500+ cumulative cases by August 10. Alerts show cases at 1,500+ 'moving faster than ever.' Forecast has 9 days remaining. Current rate of spread (1,500 in ~30 days based on news timeline) means 2,000 cases may be achieved; 3,500 within 9 days would require acceleration to ~200+ new cases/day. This is feasible given 'record time' language but tight. Holding at 98% (high confidence in near-term surge, but 3,500 specifically is edge case). Did not spike — already at ceiling.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.