Trump Trade Shock Accelerates: US imposes new tariffs on Chinese goods within 21 days

76%

probability · 59% confidence · 21 days

Trump administration is implementing broad economic pressure campaign (Iran sanctions, trade threats, generic drug tariffs). Forecast requires new tariffs on Chinese goods within 21 days (expires 2026-09-04). Trade war escalation base rate is 10% in 30 days, but Trump administration has signaled aggressive tariff use as primary policy tool. Multiple administration officials discussing China tariffs. Upgrading from 64% to 76%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.