Crude Spikes on Strait Tensions: Brent exceeds $105/barrel within 14 days

88%

probability · 64% confidence · 14 days

Brent currently at $95.45 (live price 2026-06-05). Crude Spikes forecast set threshold at $105. US-Iran direct military confrontation confirmed with Kuwait airport damaged. Base rate oil_above_100 is 12%, but active Gulf engagement and damaged infrastructure sustain 88% probability for $105 spike within 14 days. No change warranted.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.