Sudan Famine Accelerates: Food insecurity reaches 95%+ in conflict zones by July 15

79%

probability · 79% confidence · 16 days

Sudan ceasefire collapse and military stalling of peace talks directly threat existing humanitarian channels. El-Obeid famine forecast (ID:3005f543) already assigned 91% probability; this update reflects worsening conditions from ceasefire failure. Military stonewalling peace negotiations removes pressure on warring parties to allow aid corridors. Food insecurity base rate 15% for outbreak_spread in 30 days; Sudan's active conflict status elevates this substantially.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.