Tech Giants Face Heat: US Congress introduces or UK Parliament advances social media age restriction bill within 45 days

62%

probability · 62% confidence · 45 days

Austria has already passed under-14 social media ban (existing forecast ID: fd120bc7 at 73% probability, expires May 1). New signal: Meta court trial on child safety (New Mexico trial finding Meta chose 'growth and profit over children's safety'). UK police identified antisemitic motive in recent attacks. Momentum for legislative action on youth mental health/safety is building globally. US Congress has shown interest in social media regulation (base rate: tech regulation/policy 25% over 90 days). Likelihood of formal bill introduction within 45 days is elevated given Austria precedent and Meta penalties trajectory. Conservative estimate accounts for legislative cycle delays.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.