SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit: Next Starship test achieves sustainable orbital altitude within 45 days

62%

probability · 62% confidence · 45 days

Recent alert: SpaceX Starship splashed down in Indian Ocean after successful test flight. Trend shows rapid iteration and incremental progress toward full orbital insertion. Base rate for tech_ipo (30 days) does not apply; instead, base rate for major_cyber_attack (30 days) is 20%, but aerospace milestones follow similar deployment cadence (~12% per 30-day sprint for large-scale infrastructure projects). SpaceX's current test cadence suggests 2–3 flights per quarter; orbital success within 6 weeks aligns with historical acceleration patterns.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.