S&P Corrects 5%: Stock index drops below 6,167 within 21 days

41%

probability · 41% confidence · 21 days

S&P 500 at 6492.02. A 5% correction = 6492 × 0.95 = 6,167.40. Base rate for stock_crash_10pct (30 days) is 3%, and for nasdaq_correction (30 days) is 5%. Current signals: German economic 'catastrophe' warnings, OECD downgrading UK growth, global trade disruption at 80-year worst, Iran war spillover to Asia markets, Gulf state investment pullback. VIX likely spiking (base rate 10% for 30-day VIX spike). However, US equities have shown resilience; initial shock absorbed. Probability kept moderate (41%) — above base rate due to geopolitical tail risk, but below 50% reflecting market structural support. 21-day window allows time for Iran escalation to fully propagate into equity repricing. [W…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.