Kenya's Internet Goes Dark: Major ISP outages expand to 3+ regions within 14 days amid security crisis

72%

probability · 72% confidence · 14 days

Critical alert reports coordinated Internet disruption in Nairobi coinciding with wildlife poisoning (cyanide-laced pesticide killing elephants) and security deterioration. Pattern suggests either deliberate infrastructure sabotage or cascading failure under conflict pressure. Kenya's telecom infrastructure has been fragile during previous regional crises. Base rate for major_cyber_attack is 20% (30 days); this signal—coordinated outage + security instability—elevates probability to 72% within 14 days as the crisis may force broader shutdowns or additional attacks.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.