Natural Disaster Spike: Major typhoon or tropical cyclone kills 100+ across Pacific region within 30 days

79%

probability · 61% confidence · 30 days

Hurricane Polo now confirmed as intensifying and extremely powerful, with active critical alerts from Mexico City and multiple sources flagging severe flooding/landslide threat. Original forecast threshold was 100+ deaths; Polo's track, intensity, and geographic targeting (densely populated Pacific coast) increase casualty likelihood. Probability raised from 74% to 79% due to upgraded storm intensity signal.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.