Oil Stabilizes on Iran Standoff: Brent crude holds $98–$102/barrel through October 20 amid Trump-Iran rhetoric stalemate

58%

probability · 44% confidence · 14 days

Live Brent: $105.74. Oil stabilization forecast anchor was $98-$102/barrel. Current price at $105.74 indicates probability should increase slightly given sustained supply premium from Houthi campaign. Updated from 48% to 58% to reflect elevated risk environment.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.