Cuba Humanitarian Crisis Deepens: Third island-wide blackout within 45 days

94%

probability · 52% confidence · 45 days

New critical alert: 'Cuban energy crisis triggers nationwide blackouts; CIA chief visits amid collapse.' Existing forecast at 91% for 'Third island-wide blackout within 45 days.' This alert confirms crisis is ACTIVE NOW with highest-level US intelligence engagement. Grid deterioration is accelerating. Historical pattern from Cuba 2023-2024 shows blackouts cluster when thermal capacity falls below 40%. Current reports suggest Cuba below 35% operational capacity. Probability of THIRD blackout (which may already be occurring) increased to 94%. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.