Canada tariff deal closes: Trump-Carney negotiations yield bilateral agreement within 14 days

8%

probability · 58% confidence · 14 days

No movement toward bilateral US-Canada trade deal. Tariffs now at 50% with escalation signals only. Probability reduced further as current trajectory shows agreement becoming less likely, not more.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.