Iran Strikes Back Hard: Tehran launches direct military attack on US or allied targets within 21 days

96%

probability · 71% confidence · 21 days

Iran Strikes Back Hard forecast already assigned 92%. New signals confirm direct military engagement: US launched strikes on Iran; Tehran vows response; wedding strike killed 11; Iran fires on Gulf neighbors. Kinetic exchange is now active and reciprocal. Raising to 96% — Tehran has demonstrated willingness to conduct direct strikes on US-aligned targets (Saudi tanker attack confirmed).

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.