Ebola Vaccine Shift Fails: Africa CDC reverts to original Zaire strain vaccine, abandoning cross-strain strategy within 21 days

34%

probability · 34% confidence · 21 days

WHO chief signals 'unprecedented rate' of Ebola spread in DRC with healthcare worker strikes disrupting response. The Africa CDC's plan to use vaccine for a different strain is experimental under crisis conditions. Base rate for outbreak_spread is 15% (30 days), but vaccine policy reversals under pressure are rarer. High operational friction (strikes, overwhelmed facilities) makes maintaining novel vaccine protocols difficult. However, reversions are not guaranteed — the CDC may double down on strategy despite setbacks.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.