Colombia War Crimes Probe Sparks: International Criminal Court or UN investigates alleged narco-crackdown killings within 28 days

55%

probability · 55% confidence · 28 days

Alert flags Colombian security forces facing war crimes allegations in narcoterrorist crackdown. Signal shows escalated fighting, displacement, and formal accusations circulating. ICC has opened preliminary examinations into Colombia for extrajudicial killings before (2018-2021). Base rate for sanctions or formal investigations in conflict zones is 8% (30-day window), but ICC already monitors Colombia—conditional probability higher. Track record shows 0/2 correct on Economic forecasts (overconfident), so moderating from 72% to 55% to reflect epistemic humility on complex diplomatic timelines.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.