Economic Damage Mounts: Colombia reports Q2 GDP growth below 1.5% amid displacement spike

72%

probability · 58% confidence · 60 days

Colombia displacement crisis now explicitly stated: 'Colombia mass displacement crisis surges past 7 million internally displaced persons' (June 19 alerts). This is a massive data point—7.1M confirmed in signals. Economic impact acceleration is now documented. Base rate for recession in 90 days is 4%, but Colombia's specific Q2 GDP contraction signal is strong. Raising from 58% to 72% confidence that Q2 GDP growth will fall below 1.5% threshold. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-10-30): Colombia's statistics agency DANE reported on 18 August 2026 that Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.5% year on year, well above the 1.5% threshold. The release also came after the 2 August deadline.…

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