Economic Damage Mounts: Colombia reports Q2 GDP growth below 1.5% amid displacement spike

72%

probability · 58% confidence · 60 days

Colombia displacement crisis now explicitly stated: 'Colombia mass displacement crisis surges past 7 million internally displaced persons' (June 19 alerts). This is a massive data point—7.1M confirmed in signals. Economic impact acceleration is now documented. Base rate for recession in 90 days is 4%, but Colombia's specific Q2 GDP contraction signal is strong. Raising from 58% to 72% confidence that Q2 GDP growth will fall below 1.5% threshold.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.