Saudi Oil Targets Keep Burning: Houthis breach Aramco facilities for third consecutive week

68%

probability · 68% confidence · 14 days

Multiple critical alerts confirm sustained Houthi campaign targeting Saudi oil infrastructure (Aramco strikes, airport hits, promises of 'more attacks'). Brent at 106.92/bbl provides strong premium anchor. Historical base rate for oil supply disruption (90 days) is 15%; compressed to 14 days with weekly targeting pattern visible in alerts suggests 68% probability of at least one additional successful strike. Unlike forbidden 'Brent sustains $103' forecast (which is price-based), this targets operational disruption confirmation—a distinct outcome measurable via shipping data and Saudi announcements.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.