Canadian Tariff Deal Fails: US-Canada trade war stays above 40% through September 15 with no bilateral agreement

82%

probability · 76% confidence · 18 days

US-Canada trade war escalation confirmed with tariff threats and political pressure campaign sustained across multiple alerts. No bilateral agreement signals active. Base rate for trade war persistence is ~10%, but current political pressure and tariff rhetoric suggest deal closure probability is dropping below 24% (inverse). Updated from 76%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.