Poland Tightens Espionage Laws: Warsaw passes new counterintelligence legislation targeting foreign assassinations within 30 days

68%

probability · 68% confidence · 30 days

Assassination of Russian dissident artist Semyon Skrepetsky in Warsaw (June 19) triggers urgent legislative response. Poland has history of rapid parliamentary action on national security. Base rate for sanctions imposed (30 days) is 8%; espionage-related legislation moves faster, estimated 68% given political urgency and historical precedent in Visegrad countries. Closed and marked incorrect (2026-06-22): no new Polish counterintelligence/anti-assassination legislation was passed within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.