US Measles Cases Hit 3,000: Outbreak exceeds 3,000 confirmed cases by August 15

98%

probability · 72% confidence · 21 days

US Measles forecast targets 3,000+ cases by August 15. Existing forecasts show 2,500–2,700 cases already confirmed. 14 days to August 15. Historical outbreak_spread base rate 15% (30 days); measles has 85%+ historical accuracy on surge forecasts. Current signal trajectory supports crossing 3,000 threshold. Holding at 98%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.