Turkish Crackdown Intensifies: Ankara detains 100+ LGBTQ individuals by September 28

54%

probability · 54% confidence · 14 days

Alerts confirm Turkish anti-LGBTQ raids already underway with dozens detained. Policy change base rate: 15% (30d); mass protest base rate: 20% (30d). Rapid escalation from raids to triple-digit detention toll suggests normalization of enforcement wave. Conservative vs. full momentum to account for international pressure and NGO documentation lag.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.