Iraq Boots US Troops Out: Parliament's September 30 withdrawal deadline holds, no extension granted

64%

probability · 64% confidence · 76 days

Alert confirms 'Iraqi Parliament Approves US Troop Withdrawal by September 30' and 'US Troop Withdrawal from Iraq Set for September 30; Iran-Aligned Militias Remain.' Base rate for conflict_escalation is 12%; this is a formal legislative decision with strong pro-Iran militia pressure in parliament. US administration under Trump may resist or attempt delay, but Iraqi parliament vote represents binding political commitment. Probability reflects parliament's nationalist consensus and Iran's leverage over Shia-majority parliament—but also residual risk of last-minute deal or extension.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.