Ebola Containment Cracks: Sierra Leone or Liberia reports first confirmed case by June 25

81%

probability · 73% confidence · 12 days

Ebola death toll jumped to 181 in DRC with 'record increase' reported. Red Cross warns outbreak not yet peaked and could last a year. Medical mistrust delays treatment. Viral load and case trajectory suggest cross-border spread to adjacent countries more likely than baseline 73%. Sierra Leone and Liberia borders remain at high risk.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.