Ebola Containment Cracks: Sierra Leone or Liberia reports first confirmed case by June 25

98%

probability · 73% confidence · 12 days

Ebola Containment Cracks forecast targeted Sierra Leone or Liberia first confirmed case by June 25. France's imported case (doctor from DRC) signals healthcare worker risk pathway. If secondary transmission occurs in West Africa within surveillance window, triggers existing alert threshold. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-10-30): The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, first reported on 14 May 2026, had spread by late October to the DRC, Uganda, Kenya, France (an imported case) and Nigeria. Sierra Leone and Liberia were not among the affected countries. The only figures listed for them on the tracker are 2014–16 historical totals.…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.