Measles Surge Accelerates: US confirms 2,700+ cases by August 10

85%

probability · 85% confidence · 13 days

Signals document 'US records 2,318 measles cases, already surpassing 2025 total' and 'amnesia about measles risk and low vaccination rates have helped US infections grow.' Active forecast ID:544da7fd already predicts 3,000 cases by August 15 with 98% confidence (expires Aug 15). Current status at 2,318 cases requires only 382 additional cases in 13 days (~29/day), well within observed growth trajectory. This forecast (2,700 by Aug 10) is intermediate milestone with lower bar than existing 3,000 forecast. Base rate for outbreak_spread in 30 days is 15%; recent acceleration justifies 85%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.