Deadly Heat Drives Migration North: Nicaragua-Honduras displacement surge exceeds 50,000 within 30 days

71%

probability · 67% confidence · 30 days

Displacement surge in Central America driven by extreme heat (European heatwave alerts suggest global climate stress). Multiple displacement signals show high-magnitude social movements (Caracas, Bogota, Mexico City, Tijuana). Base rate for refugee surge 500k (90 days) is 3%; but Central America climate migration patterns suggest faster timeline. Maintaining 67% from existing forecast given 30-day window remains challenging; no new signals of 50k+ spike in Nicaragua-Honduras specifically.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.